3. CONCLUDING REMARKS
This document has shown the behavior
of four approaches to determine
what the cost of debt, Kd, will be when
forecasting financial statements. The
comparison has been made with the
cost of debt, Kd, calculated as the
actual interest charges divided by
the initial debt balance. These four
approaches are: a) the capitalized
interest rate, b) the interest charges
calculated on the basis of average
debt (average of initial debt balance
and end debt balance), c) Kd calculated
as the sum of interest charges
(defined for shorter periods (months
or quarters), and d) the end of year
model that assumes that the interest
charges should be calculated using
the contractual Kd and the initial
debt balance.
The comparison has been made with
approach c) because that approach is consistent with the tax savings
(tax shields, TS) that are included in
the valuation of cash flows when the
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
(WACC) is used as the discount rate;
this is, TS are earned on the actual interest
charged. That approach takes
into account the correct amount of
interest charges for defining the TS
when constructing the discount rate
(WACC).
The results from tables 3a and 3b and
equations (6), (7) and (8) show that:
1. The capitalized interest cost of
debt, Kdcap, approach and the end
of year approach strongly overestimate
Kd and hence TS. See
equations (6) and (7).
2. The cost of debt calculated based
on the average debt systematically
underestimates the contractual
cost of debt and hence TS. See
equation (8).
As a recommendation for forecasting
it is suggested to coincide the period
of forecasting with the period of calculation
of interest charges. If not
possible to forecast this way, calculate
the cost of debt as financial expenses
for the period divided by debt
in the previous period. If the analyst
needs to work with years she has to
calculate the interest payments in
shorter periods and add them up for
the year, because this is the basis of
the TS calculation.
3. CONCLUDING REMARKSThis document has shown the behaviorof four approaches to determinewhat the cost of debt, Kd, will be whenforecasting financial statements. Thecomparison has been made with thecost of debt, Kd, calculated as theactual interest charges divided bythe initial debt balance. These fourapproaches are: a) the capitalizedinterest rate, b) the interest chargescalculated on the basis of averagedebt (average of initial debt balanceand end debt balance), c) Kd calculatedas the sum of interest charges(defined for shorter periods (monthsor quarters), and d) the end of yearmodel that assumes that the interestcharges should be calculated usingthe contractual Kd and the initialdebt balance.The comparison has been made withapproach c) because that approach is consistent with the tax savings(tax shields, TS) that are included inthe valuation of cash flows when theWeighted Average Cost of Capital(WACC) is used as the discount rate;this is, TS are earned on the actual interestcharged. That approach takesinto account the correct amount ofinterest charges for defining the TSwhen constructing the discount rate(WACC).The results from tables 3a and 3b andequations (6), (7) and (8) show that:1. The capitalized interest cost ofdebt, Kdcap, approach and the endof year approach strongly overestimateKd and hence TS. Seeequations (6) and (7).2. The cost of debt calculated basedon the average debt systematicallyunderestimates การตามสัญญาต้นทุนของหนี้ และดังนั้น TS ดูสมการ (8)เป็นคำแนะนำสำหรับการคาดการณ์แนะนำตรงกันระยะของการคาดการณ์ระยะเวลาการคำนวณดอกเบี้ยค่าธรรมเนียมการ ถ้าไม่ได้คำนวณได้ด้วยวิธีนี้ คาดการณ์ต้นทุนของหนี้เป็นค่าใช้จ่ายทางการเงินสำหรับงวดหาร ด้วยหนี้สินในรอบระยะเวลาก่อนหน้านี้ ถ้านักวิเคราะห์การต้องทำงานกับเธอเป็นปีคำนวณดอกเบี้ยในรอบระยะเวลาที่สั้นลง และเพิ่มขึ้นในปี เนื่องจากเป็นพื้นฐานของการคำนวณ TS
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