What is the relationship between inflation and stock returns? Holding
stocks is often thought to provide a good hedge against inflation, since
the payments to equity holders are not fixed in nominal terms and represent
a claim on real assets (unlike the coupons on bonds, for example).
However, the majority of empirical studies that have investigated the sign
of this relationship have found it to be negative. Various explanations
of this puzzling empirical phenomenon have been proposed, including a
link through real activity, so that real activity is negatively related to inflation
but positively related to stock returns and therefore stock returns
and inflation vary positively. Clearly, inflation and stock returns ought
to be simultaneously related given that the rate of inflation will affect
the discount rate applied to cashflows and therefore the value of equities,
but the performance of the stock market may also affect consumer
demand and therefore inflation through its impact on householder wealth
(perceived or actual).1
What is the relationship between inflation and stock returns? Holding
stocks is often thought to provide a good hedge against inflation, since
the payments to equity holders are not fixed in nominal terms and represent
a claim on real assets (unlike the coupons on bonds, for example).
However, the majority of empirical studies that have investigated the sign
of this relationship have found it to be negative. Various explanations
of this puzzling empirical phenomenon have been proposed, including a
link through real activity, so that real activity is negatively related to inflation
but positively related to stock returns and therefore stock returns
and inflation vary positively. Clearly, inflation and stock returns ought
to be simultaneously related given that the rate of inflation will affect
the discount rate applied to cashflows and therefore the value of equities,
but the performance of the stock market may also affect consumer
demand and therefore inflation through its impact on householder wealth
(perceived or actual).1
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