subadults. There were no instances of a juvenile or subadult
captured in 2010, going unidentified in 2011 and
being recaptured in 2012 (i.e. an encounter history of
‘101’), and as a result, recapture probability was 10
(SE = 0).
As with B. variegatus, the highest-ranked model for
juvenile and adult survival in C. hoffmanni was {φage(JS,A),
p.}, indicating that juveniles and subadults survived at
similar rates and that the survival rates of juveniles and
subadults differed from adult survival rates. This model
was ranked 372 AICc higher than a model in which survival
differed between all three stage classes. According to
the top-ranked model, φ = 0726 (SE = 0099) and
P = 0500 (SE = 0) for juveniles and subadults.
POPULATION GROWTH RATES
Using the adult survival estimates derived from radiomarked
male B. variegatus (for which estimates of true
and local survival were equivalent), we estimated that
k = 0937 (SE = 0030) and 0936 (SE = 0029) when
AFB = 2 and 3 years, respectively. The upper 95% confidence
limit was below 10 regardless of AFB, indicating
a statistically significant decline in the absence of immigration.
Point estimates of k increased linearly with
potential immigration rates, but did not reach 10 when
annual immigration was 010, regardless of AFB
(Fig. 4a).
Using the estimate of true adult survival derived from
radiomarked male C. hoffmanni, we estimated that
k = 1077 (SE = 0053) and 1050 (SE = 0043) for this
species assuming AFB = 25 and 35 years, respectively.
Using the estimate of local adult survival that discounted
the dispersing male, we estimated that k = 1062
(SE = 0052) and 1034 (SE = 0042) for C. hoffmanni
assuming AFB = 25 and 35 years, respectively. Point
estimates of k derived using local survival increased linearly
with potential immigration rates and reached 1159
and 1117 when AFB = 25 and 35 years, respectively
(Fig. 4b).
CHARACTERISING IMMIGRATION WITH GENETIC
KINSHIP METHODS
All of the 21 B. variegatus juveniles that we genotyped
shared an allele with a single adult male, and we assumed
that these matches represented paternal relationships. In
contrast, only four of the eight B. variegatus subadults
that we genotyped shared an allele with an adult male.
The frequency of juveniles and subadults with fathers in
the sample was significantly different (X21
= 122,
P < 0001). All four subadults with a father in the sample
also had a mother in the population, clearly indicating
they were born within study area boundaries. Three of
the four subadults without a father in the sample also did
not have a mother in the sample, suggesting that they
were likely to be immigrants from surrounding areas, particularly
given that we believe we censused nearly all adult
B. variegatus in the study area.