The probability a LBM is infected and prevalence at the LBM was more strongly influenced by the village prevalence
than the probability of detection (Table 3). This highlights the importance of infection at source in spreading disease. The benefits of Inspection 2 over Inspection 1 are consistent across the sensitivity analysis. However, if every village is infected (Pv = 1) there is a limit to the effectiveness of Inspection 2. This is due to the large proportion of consignments that containinfectedundetected birds and large number of collectors that supply LBM.