Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine
ecosystems, and polar bears are vulnerable to these changes in sea ice conditions. Stephen
Hamilton from University of Alberta and colleagues used sea ice projections for the Canadian
Arctic Archipelago from 2006-2100 and metrics developed from polar bear energetics
modeling to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears facing habitat loss.
Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as
lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the
21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may
undergo 2-5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. Under
business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive
failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.