Potential Impact
Any company considering investment in the Lao market will have to take into consideration economic factors such as low disposal income, weak currency and high inflation rates. However there are many opportunities to be exploited in the Lao economy and their priority focus on international trade is extremely encouraging.
While the Lao economy remains the smallest in Southeast Asia, it has been drawing the attention of foreign investors for a number of reasons, including its abundant natural resources, low-cost labor force, and proximity to China and the fast-growing markets of ASEAN.
Laos’s neighbors – China, Thailand, and Vietnam – continue to dominate the investment landscape, accounting for more than half of all foreign investment. China surpassed Vietnam last year, with licensed projects valued at more than $5 billion. But Laos is broadening its appeal to other investors as well. Japanese investment increased by nearly 15 percent in 2013, to more than $400 million, attracted by improvements in the country’s infrastructure and the prospect of an alternative production base to Thailand.
While investors are attracted by low labor costs, businesses find it difficult to hire and retain qualified employees. Poorly funded schools have failed to produce enough skilled workers to fill manufacturing and other technology-driven jobs, and those with qualifications frequently pursue higher paying work in Thailand.
Like other developing countries, Laos is handicapped by an immature judiciary and legal system, and was ranked 159 out of 189 economies in the 2014 World Bank Ease of Doing Business survey, which measures the effect of business regulations and their enforcement.
However, some challenges facing Laos may represent investment opportunities. While agriculture contributes about one quarter of GDP, it is the slowest growing sector of the economy, hobbled by low productivity and outdated farming methods. Infrastructure and information technology remain significant impediments to development, particularly in remote, mountainous regions outside Vientiane and other population centers. Health care and education suffer from chronic underfunding.
The most immediate and significant challenge facing Laos is an expanding fiscal crisis. The country has a ballooning budget deficit, fueled by unchecked spending by state organizations and provincial governments and an outsized increase in public sector wages last year. The Asian Development Bank in April warned that Laos must address its deficit in order to maintain economic stability and future growth, even if it means accepting slower near term growth.
A proposed $7.2 billion high-speed railway between Vientiane and China’s Yunnan province further complicates fiscal matters. The project cost is about 70 percent of Laos’s GDP and while the source of financing remains unresolved, a strong possibility exists that Laos will end up shouldering most of the burden through loans from China.
At its highest levels, the Lao government appears to take the situation seriously, working to control wayward spending in the state sector and the provinces. State media attributed a recent cabinet shake-up, including the appointment of a new finance minister, to “economic difficulties driven by budget tensions.” More than 250 state investment projects have been suspended, and efforts are underway to improve revenue collection.
Potential ImpactAny company considering investment in the Lao market will have to take into consideration economic factors such as low disposal income, weak currency and high inflation rates. However there are many opportunities to be exploited in the Lao economy and their priority focus on international trade is extremely encouraging.While the Lao economy remains the smallest in Southeast Asia, it has been drawing the attention of foreign investors for a number of reasons, including its abundant natural resources, low-cost labor force, and proximity to China and the fast-growing markets of ASEAN.Laos’s neighbors – China, Thailand, and Vietnam – continue to dominate the investment landscape, accounting for more than half of all foreign investment. China surpassed Vietnam last year, with licensed projects valued at more than $5 billion. But Laos is broadening its appeal to other investors as well. Japanese investment increased by nearly 15 percent in 2013, to more than $400 million, attracted by improvements in the country’s infrastructure and the prospect of an alternative production base to Thailand.While investors are attracted by low labor costs, businesses find it difficult to hire and retain qualified employees. Poorly funded schools have failed to produce enough skilled workers to fill manufacturing and other technology-driven jobs, and those with qualifications frequently pursue higher paying work in Thailand.Like other developing countries, Laos is handicapped by an immature judiciary and legal system, and was ranked 159 out of 189 economies in the 2014 World Bank Ease of Doing Business survey, which measures the effect of business regulations and their enforcement.However, some challenges facing Laos may represent investment opportunities. While agriculture contributes about one quarter of GDP, it is the slowest growing sector of the economy, hobbled by low productivity and outdated farming methods. Infrastructure and information technology remain significant impediments to development, particularly in remote, mountainous regions outside Vientiane and other population centers. Health care and education suffer from chronic underfunding.The most immediate and significant challenge facing Laos is an expanding fiscal crisis. The country has a ballooning budget deficit, fueled by unchecked spending by state organizations and provincial governments and an outsized increase in public sector wages last year. The Asian Development Bank in April warned that Laos must address its deficit in order to maintain economic stability and future growth, even if it means accepting slower near term growth.A proposed $7.2 billion high-speed railway between Vientiane and China’s Yunnan province further complicates fiscal matters. The project cost is about 70 percent of Laos’s GDP and while the source of financing remains unresolved, a strong possibility exists that Laos will end up shouldering most of the burden through loans from China.At its highest levels, the Lao government appears to take the situation seriously, working to control wayward spending in the state sector and the provinces. State media attributed a recent cabinet shake-up, including the appointment of a new finance minister, to “economic difficulties driven by budget tensions.” More than 250 state investment projects have been suspended, and efforts are underway to improve revenue collection.
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