AbstractBackground: Although cardiovascular disease is the major cause of premature death among Indigenous peoples inseveral advanced economies, no acute coronary syndrome (ACS) risk models have been validated in Indigenouspopulations. We tested the validity and calibration of three Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) scoresamong Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians.Methods: GRACE scores were calculated at admission or discharge using clinical data, with all-cause deathsobtained from data linkage. Scores for GRACE models were validated for; 1) in-hospital death, 2) death within6 months from admission or 3) death within 6 months of discharge (this also for 1 and 5-years mortality).Results: Aboriginal patient were younger (62 % aged <55 years versus 15 % non-Aboriginal) and their medianGRACE scores lower than non-Aboriginal patients, as was crude mortality at 6 months from admission (6 % vs 10 %)and at 1 and 5 years. After age stratification, risk scores for Aboriginal patients were equivalent or higher, especiallyamong those aged <55 years. There was a trend to more deaths after discharge among Aboriginal patients in eachage group, suggesting an age-related under-estimation of risk. The c-statistics for the three GRACE models withinboth groups were between 0.75 and 0.79.Conclusions: We demonstrated for the first time that while the discriminatory capacity of GRACE risk scores amongIndigenous Australians is good, the models may need re-calibrating to improve risk stratification in this and otherIndigenous groups, where age of onset of coronary disease is much younger than among the original referencepopulation.Keywords: GRACE risk score, Acute coronary syndrome, Indigenous, Mortality, Aboriginal
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