Fig. 1. Regional-scale coral bleaching analysis on the GBR (after Wooldridge and Done, in press). Inshore coral reef areas with high runoff exposure risk are shown to
correspond (in a probabilistic sense) with reefs that displayed a lower resistance to thermal stress (red zone) during the 1998 and 2002 mass bleaching events. Accumulated
reef responses (observed) from within the low resistance (red zone) areas confirm the increased risk of bleaching (per unit increase in SST), and reflect an averaged lowering in
upper thermal bleaching threshold of 1.0–1.5 C.