We used data on population distribution (30 arc-second resolution) from the Global Rural–Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) (4), as well as demographic forecasts for our study cities (5). Two demographic scenarios are explored: the “Basic Demographic” scenario, which predicts a city's population growth according to its size and national-level urban fertility and mortality trends; and the “Ecological Factors” scenario, which in addition allows cities in specific biomes (e.g., arid regions) to have different rates of population growth, all else being equal. Hydrologic data (6-min resolution) on monthly sustainable surface and groundwater flows are taken from the Water Balance Model (6–10). Four scenarios of climate and land use change, driven by consistent scenarios of global economic development, are based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (11) scenarios as implemented by Fekete et al. (12): Adaptive Management; Global Orchestration; Order from Strength; and Technogarden.
We used data on population distribution (30 arc-second resolution) from the Global Rural–Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) (4), as well as demographic forecasts for our study cities (5). Two demographic scenarios are explored: the “Basic Demographic” scenario, which predicts a city's population growth according to its size and national-level urban fertility and mortality trends; and the “Ecological Factors” scenario, which in addition allows cities in specific biomes (e.g., arid regions) to have different rates of population growth, all else being equal. Hydrologic data (6-min resolution) on monthly sustainable surface and groundwater flows are taken from the Water Balance Model (6–10). Four scenarios of climate and land use change, driven by consistent scenarios of global economic development, are based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (11) scenarios as implemented by Fekete et al. (12): Adaptive Management; Global Orchestration; Order from Strength; and Technogarden.
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