Introduction: Misunderstanding abou

Introduction: Misunderstanding about Space
In projecting the future development of the world economy, mainstream economists fail to foresee a major part of the coming decades' economic activity because they suffer from a major misunderstanding about space activities that is unfortunately widespread both outside and inside the "space industry". This misunderstanding is held also by leading contemporary historians such as Samuel Huntington (1) and Francis Fukuyama (2), by leading contemporary sociologists such as Alvin Toffler(3), and by well-known economic commentators such as Robert Heilbroner (4) and Jeremy Rifkin (5).

(This misunderstanding might perhaps be called the " Player Piano Error" after the 1952 novel by the author Kurt Vonnegut (6): this describes an apparently plausible but economically unrealistic future condition of the USA in which most of the population is unemployed, spending their lives comfortable but bored on government "make work" schemes, while a small elite manage the highly automated industry that produces goods and services for everyone.)

The mistake underlying these writers' view of the future is the assumption that ordinary people cannot go to space. They believe that it is almost impossibly difficult to get to space, and that only specially selected people with extensive training can survive the "rigours" of space travel. Consequently they assume that space activities will remain trivially small in scale, and that humans' future will be essentially Earth-bound.

This idea is entirely mistaken: in fact it is not very difficult to travel to space - it has been done regularly for nearly 40 years (ie since before such basic features of modern life as satellite communications, colour television, Beatles' music, the Boeing 747, oral contraceptives, credit-cards, video-cassettes, heart pacemakers, micro-computers, microwave ovens, compact discs, optical fibres, the Internet, DNA finger-printing, mobile telephones, GPS and many others); and essentially anyone can travel to and from space without any stress or ill-effects.

Because of these facts, commercial space travel services can grow in future essentially without limit; and they are likely do so once private businesses start to earn profits from them, due to the very large unsatisfied demand for these services - as has recently begun to receive official recognition. This development will have a profound effect on the world economy and on human activities over the next few decades, making the visions of the future described by most economic commentators to date, including those mentioned above, seriously inaccurate.

1.1 Space Tourism Feasible
The main reason why passenger travel services to and from space are not available today is not because they are difficult or even particularly expensive to develop, at least by comparison with current government budgets for civilian space activities - but because government space agencies are not trying to develop them - although they spend $25 billion/year of taxpayers' money. As an example, the largest space agency, NASA, has the " X-33" reusable rocket under development, but it is unpiloted; its intended successor, "Venture Star", is not suitable for passenger-carrying; and it represents barely 2% of NASA's budget. Furthermore, government space agencies have never carried out market research on the demand for space travel services among the general public.

Because of the lack of research on the feasibility of tourism in space, the Japanese Rocket Society ( JRS), a private organisation established in 1956, started a formal "Space Tourism Study Programme" in 1993. A series of papers and reports on the results of this work has been published (7), of which major conclusions to date include:

the " Kankoh-maru" VTOL launch vehicle could carry 50 passengers to and from low Earth orbit at a price of some $25,000/passenger, and could be developed and put into commercial operation within 10 years at a total investment of some $12 billion.
Based on preliminary market research performed in Japan, Canada, Germany and the USA between 1993 and 1995 (8, 9), the popular demand for tourist trips to low Earth orbit ( LEO) is potentially large enough to justify producing some 50 Kankoh-maru vehicles, on which scale this activity could be self-financing.
Anyone in sufficiently good health to ride on a scheduled airline flight could make a short trip to and from space without any ill effects on their health, and without training (unless they were required to play some role in the vehicle's operation). If there was ever any doubt about this, the orbital flight by 77 year-old US Senator John Glenn in October 1998 eliminated it.
These results have recently been endorsed in general terms by NASA (10), by the American Institute for Astronautics and Aeronautics, AIAA, (11) and by independent researchers (12, 13), who confirm that commercial passenger space travel services could grow to a larger scale than all exist

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Introduction: misconceptions about the area in projecting the future development of the global economy. The Mainstream economists do not expect a significant share of economic activity for several decades because they suffer from a misconception about important areas of activity is widespread, but both outside and within the "industrial area" this misunderstanding. to be held By bringing contemporary history include Samuel Huntington (1) and Fukuyama Francis (2) by said leading contemporary like Al Wilson Toffler (3) and critics economy known as Robert Heilbroner (4) and Jeremy. Rifkin (5) (this can be called a misunderstanding. "I play the piano," the 1952 novel by Kurt Vonnegut (6) Authors: explain the obvious. But this is not true future economic condition of the United States population is unemployed. Comfortable living but tired "government work" scheme, while sales of small industries advanced automation products and services all have) crash that references the view of these writers in the future is the assumption that ordinary people can not. to areas they believe. It is difficult to get the recipe and that only a selected person. Training can survive the "shock" of space tourism so. Assuming they are trivially small space activities. And future of human beings to Earth-bound main idea is all wrong: in fact, not very difficult to travel to the area - it was routine for nearly 40 years (since the first such basic functions of life. modern communications satellite color television music of the Beatles Boeing 747 good credit videotape defibrillator. Microcomputer microwave ovens, compact disc optical fiber Internet fingerprinting DNA cell phone, GPS and many more) , and essentially anyone can walk away from the area without strain or impact that bad because these facts. Commercial space tourism is a major growth in the future without limits , and they often do when starting a business can profit from them. Because of dissatisfaction for these services - which are just starting to get to know the official development will have a profound effect. In a global economy And human activity over the next few decades. Vision of the future of the economy showed today. Including those mentioned above, Invalid seriously 1.1 Space tourism is going to be the main reason why passengers traveling to and from areas not served today, not harder. Or even particularly expensive to develop. Less compared to the current government budget for civil space activities - but because the state is not trying to develop them - even if they spend $ 25 billion a year of income tax , for example. The biggest space agency NASA has steerable "X-33" developed unpiloted, but it is intended to be "adventurous" star is not suitable for carrying passengers and represents almost 2% of the budget of NASA facilities. The state does not conduct research according to tour the region among the general public because there is no research on the possibilities of tourism in the area. Japanese Rocket Society (JRS), a private organization founded in 1956 to start officially. "Space tourism education program" in 1993, a series of documents and performance reports are published (7), a key conclusion of the day: the car was launched. "Kankoh- Maru" VTOL able to carry 50 passengers to and from low Earth orbit, at a price. $ 25,000 / ride some may develop and move the commercial operation within 10 years to invest some 12 billion dollars from market research primarily made ​​in Japan, Canada, Germany and the United States between 1993 and 1995 (8, 9). popular for tourists to travel to low Earth orbit (LEO) is not big enough to build 50 Ichi Kankoh certain vehicles. In which this activity could share all healthy enough to sit on a flight of the airline's scheduled to make the short trip to and from the area did not have any effect on patients, their health and do not have the training (unless they. he must play some role in the operation of the vehicle) if there was ever a doubt about the orbit by 77-year-old US Senator John Glenn in 2541 October, cut it out , these results has just been approved in general by NASA. (10), the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics AIAA, (11) and by independent researchers (12, 13), confirming the commercial passenger space travel. Can grow larger than all available.

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Introduction: misconceptions about the area
in projecting the future development of the global economic mainstream economists do not expect a significant share of economic activity for decades. 'Because they suffer from a misunderstanding about an important area of activity is widespread. Unfortunately, both outside and within the "industrial area. " This misconception is held by the contemporary historian such as Samuel Huntington (1) and Francis Fukuyama (2) The sociologist leading contemporary like Alvin Toffler (3) and. economic commentators known as Robert Heilbroner (4) and. Jeremy Rifkin. (5) (This misunderstanding may be called. "Piano player" error after the 1952 novel by author Kurt Vonnegut (6): This explains the apparently possible. But unrealistic economic condition of the United States, which in the future. The population is unemployed, lives with them. But tired of the Government "Make work" schemes, while small amounts of managing industrial automation products and services for everyone.) Fundamental mistake for the future of these writers is that assumption. Ordinary people can not go to space , they believe that it is almost as difficult as possible to get to the area and only selected people with special training can survive. "Cruelty" of space travel , so they thought activity area will remain a little level, and that in the future humans will be the core of the Earth-bound. This idea was completely misunderstood. in fact, it is not very difficult to travel to the area - it has been conducted regularly for almost 40 years (since the pre-qualification basis of modern life is a satellite communications system, color TV. music Beatles' Boeing 747, birth control pills, credit cards, video tapes, pacemakers micro-computers, microwave ovens, compact discs, optical fiber Internet DNA finger printing, mobile phones, GPS and much more. ) and essentially anyone can travel to and from the area without stress or adverse effects. because of these facts, travel services, commercial areas can grow in the future, mainly unlimited, and they tend. to do so when the private sector began to profit from them because of the demand that has not been written large for these services - it has begun recently received official recognition for. this development will have a huge effect on the world economy and human activity in recent decades makes the vision described by most economic commentators today, including those mentioned above seriously. incorrect. 1.1 Space tourism is going to be the main reason. Why serve passengers traveling to and from the area that is not available today is not because they are difficult or even expensive, especially in less developed compared to the government's budget for the current activity. local civilians - but because the space agencies of the government is not trying to develop them - even if they spend $ 25 billion / year tax , for example, the space agency's largest NASA has "X-33". rocket reuse under development, but it is unpiloted; heir intention of "capital Star" is not suitable for passengers carrying; and it represents almost 2% of NASA's budget this space agencies of the government never conducted. market research on the demand for services space travel among the general public. because of the lack of research on the possibilities of space tourism rocket Japan society (JRS), which is a private organization established in the year 1956 began. the official "Space Tourism Project" in 1993, a series of documents and reports on the results of this work have been published (seven), the key conclusion today include: "The Kankoh-Maru" launch VTOL can be carried out. the 50 passengers to and from low Earth orbit at a cost of some $ 25,000 / passenger and can be developed and put into commercial operation within 10 years, a total investment of $ 12 billion. based on preliminary market research conducted in Japan, Canada. Germany and the United States between 1993 and 1995 (8, 9), which has been popular for travel to low Earth orbit (LEO) can be large enough to justify the production of some 50 cars Kankoh-Maru, which its activities. this may be your own -financing. Anyone in good health enough to sit on the flight schedule of the airline will make the short trip to and from the area without any adverse effects on their health, and no training. (Unless they have a role in the implementation of some of the vehicle) if there is ever a doubt about any orbital flight 77 years, US Senator John Glenn, in October 1998 eliminated. it. these results have recently been endorsed in general terms by NASA (10) by the American Institute for Aeronautics and Astronautics, AIAA, (11) and by independent researchers (12, 13), which confirmed that the passenger service. commercial space travel may grow to a size larger than all available.

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简介: 关于 Misunderstanding 空间在 未来 的 发展 将对 世界 经济 的 主流 经济学家, 主要 fail foresee. As) 和 罗伯特 · Rifkin 4 (5).(这 是 可能 被 误会 也许 是 "错误" 的 1952 Player 钢琴 后, 作者 通过 小说 的 Vonnegut 库尔特 (一): 这 是 6 describes. plausible但经济条件的unrealistic未来美国在它最的是的，他们的人口unemployed支出在政府bored舒适但工作方案”，使在一个小的精英。”工业生产的自动控制应用和个性化的服务是为大家。这些mistake编剧），或是“未来assumption视图是普通人不能去他们的空间。这是困难的，几乎不相信这是一个空间，一个get和广泛的选择不仅与特别训练的人“不”的生存空间。Consequently rigours旅游活动存在空间assume将是他们在trivially小未来的规模，这将是Earth-bound humans 基本上.这个 想法 是 在 entirely mistaken 事实: 它 是 不 非常 困难 去 旅行 到 空间, 它 已 被 40 年 近 regularly. finger-printing因为这些facts商业服务空间，可以增加在未来旅游基本上是没有限制likely和他们；一次做对民营企业中赚取的利润从start到他们很不满意，因为这些服务的需求）- As for有一个recently获得官方begun识别。这将有一个发展和在世界经济profound效应在人类的一些活动，使下，在几十年的未来？？？？？？的最described由经济评论在这些之上，包括日期，所inaccurate喔。1.1 Feasible 太空 旅游主要原因：为什么passenger旅游服务和可从空间到今天是不是是不是因为他们是困难的甚至，在一个非常贵。particularly发展通过比较与当前政府budgets最小二乘-但是，民用空间活动由于政府对发展空间，是不是想把社-虽然他们25美元亿美元/年的花费纳税人的钱。作为一个例子，有最大的空间机构，美国航空航天局，“火箭”reusable X-33 无人驾驶, 但 它 是 在 发展 业务; "创业 之 星", intended successor, 是 不是 和 它 为 passenger-carrying suitable; represents NASA 's of budget barely. 2%。此外，政府实施了市场空间，有没有研究社为旅游服务的需求空间在among在一般公众。因为在缺乏研究的可行性，在日本旅游的空间JRS火箭协会（private），一个organisation建立了一个工程，在1956 formal“太空旅游”研究计划在1993。A系列的文件，和结果报告上这已被发表的工作中，主要的7）（包括：conclusions to date"可能" VTOL Kankoh-maru launch 车辆 行人 携带 从 地球 到 50 at a 和 低 价格 的 一些 orbit 25,000 /. passenger美元，可能是在开发和运行10为商业和投资在一年内总的一些12美元亿美元。在 研究 基于 performed potentially 50 Kankoh-maru 生产 在 这 vehicles 活性, 这 可能 是 self-financing 秤.在良好的健康sufficiently剿scheduled航空飞行到一个能骑到一个短的访问数据从空间和概念。在不加任何没有他们的健康和他们的培训，需要对播放unless（一些是在运行车辆的作用。如果有任何关于这是任何怀疑，即美国Senator 77 orbital 由 约翰格伦 在 year-old 1998 eliminated 日 它.结果, 在 已经 有 recently These一般由endorsed从NASA（美国麻省理工学院），由该10为Astronautics和Aeronautics，AIAA（11）和研究（独立），通过确认这是12,13旅游服务passenger商业空间成长到一个能比生存更大（所有的规模。