Figure 11: Different scenarios characterise different possibilities of future developments
(SAMMER, ROESCHEL 1995).
Important:
One important aspect that must be addressed is that the future development in transport can be
influenced. For example the prognoses of increasing traffic volumes in the future are often
based on assumptions of “business us usual”- strategies, which normally is a “motorised-trafficfriendly” transport policy. The trend scenario can be changed into a different scenario when suitable measures are implemented consequently. There are numerous examples where
consistent strategies led to more environmentally friendly inner-city traffic. Otherwise big
differences in the modal split of European cities cannot be explained.