In his book, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, author Edward Cornish spends time discussing several aspect of trends. In fact, it’s at the heart of his thoughts on futuring. Here’s some of his thoughts on why we need to understand how technological innovation occurs.
Joseph P. Martino is technological forecaster. A technology forecaster generally makes forecasts concerning how soon various types of technologies will be possible and what characteristics they may have. They do not focus on what the technologies will have, because the actual technology that will be used in the future depends on economic, social, and political considerations and these are normally beyond the province of the technology forecaster.
For example, a technology forecaster might forecast that it will be possible by the year 2050 to produce electricity from nuclear fusion, but whether thermonuclear fusion will actually be used for that purpose may depend on a variety of non-technological considerations.