China’s economic development over the past
two decades has surprised both her critics and
supporters. Since 1978 when China launched
its “Four Modernizations” reform process under
the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, growth has
averaged 9.5% annually. As a result, China has
climbed in world rankings to become the sixth
largest economy in terms of nominal gross
domestic product.
Thus in the last few years China has
become the focus of much attention. Some
parts of business, academia, government and
civil society are more highly engaged in China
than ever before. All need to think about what
could happen next. But China’s future is not
merely of interest for experts. China’s impact on
global growth, resource allocation, trade and
investment, as well as geopolitical balance has
direct consequences for every part of the planet.
Key Questions for the Scenarios
When looking at the future of China, two core
questions stand out:
• Can China implement internal
reforms to further its development ?
• How will China’s relationship with
the rest of the world affect its
development and shape the global
context ?
China’s economic development over the past
two decades has surprised both her critics and
supporters. Since 1978 when China launched
its “Four Modernizations” reform process under
the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, growth has
averaged 9.5% annually. As a result, China has
climbed in world rankings to become the sixth
largest economy in terms of nominal gross
domestic product.
Thus in the last few years China has
become the focus of much attention. Some
parts of business, academia, government and
civil society are more highly engaged in China
than ever before. All need to think about what
could happen next. But China’s future is not
merely of interest for experts. China’s impact on
global growth, resource allocation, trade and
investment, as well as geopolitical balance has
direct consequences for every part of the planet.
Key Questions for the Scenarios
When looking at the future of China, two core
questions stand out:
• Can China implement internal
reforms to further its development ?
• How will China’s relationship with
the rest of the world affect its
development and shape the global
context ?
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