Investors say there's a low chance Donald Trump will build a wall on the U.S. border with Mexico if he becomes president. But they think it’s highly likely he'll slap tariffs on Asian imports, triggering a currency war.
An investor survey conducted earlier this month by Nomura Holdings Inc. flags a long list of worries under a Trump presidency: from a possible rise in trade protectionism to threats to regional security if the U.S. cuts its military commitments in Asia.
The conclusion is clear: after Mexico, Asia is most at risk.
"A Trump presidency would no doubt hurt Asia’s gross domestic product growth and could ultimately drive cost-push inflation, impart smaller trade surpluses and looser macroeconomic policies," said Rob Subbaraman, the report’s lead author.