Global growth remains moderate—and once again
more so than predicted a few months earlier. Although
country-specific shocks and developments play a role,
the persistently modest pace of recovery in advanced
economies and the fifth consecutive year of growth
declines in emerging markets suggest that medium-term
and long-term common forces are also importantly at
play. These include low productivity growth since the
crisis, crisis legacies in some advanced economies (high
public and private debt, financial sector weakness, low
investment), demographic transitions, ongoing adjustment
in many emerging markets following the postcrisis
credit and investment boom, a growth realignment
in China—with important cross-border repercussions—
and a downturn in commodity prices triggered
by weaker demand as well as higher production
capacity. Chapter 2 of this WEO report and the Commodities
Special Feature in Chapter 1 examine in detail
causes and implications of the commodity price downturn,
while the October 2015 Fiscal Monitor examines
the role of fiscal policy and fiscal policy frameworks in
managing commodity price volatility.