All of these studies tend to show relatively small gains due to AFTA. One typical CGE
model is used by Park (1998). His results are presented in Table 3. According to this study, the
big gainers from AFTA will be the Philippines and Thailand, who experience 1.5 and 1.1%
increases in GDP, respectively. All other countries gain but the growth in GDP is less than 1%.
On the other hand, it is also true that AFTA has a fairly significant impact on inflation, with
the GDP deflator falling in all countries. Once again, the Philippines and Thailand are the
biggest gainers. This is important in that lower prices imply that the ASEAN countries will
become more competitive on international markets. In fact, all countries, with the marginal
exception of Malaysia, experience a faster increase in exports than imports, with the
Philippines having an especially favorable effect on the trade balance (exports grow by 70%
and imports by 10%).