Elite behavior in itself is not always a good predictor of political change. It rarely indicates long-term processes that might undermine authoritarian rule or sustain democratic politics. New divisions, however, require analysis as they might be precursors to regime collapse. Conversely, when elites seem to be united and profit from the regime, it is difficult to envision cracks that can lead to its demise. In those circumstances, only external factors are likely to bring about political change.