4. The modal split of EST in 2030
Environmentally sustainable transport doesn’t necessarily mean less mobility than we have
today, but it will mean different transport and new types of mobility in 2030. EST will, by
definition, meet all six of the EST criteria. In building a vision of such a system, two alternate
pathways were explored: the first focused on reaching the EST criteria solely through
technological means; the second used primarily demand-side management measures. The
final EST scenario included a combination of some of the most promising existing and tested
technological features of the technology scenario with the more politically acceptable features
of the demand-side management scenario.
EST in 2030 is characterised by a modal split that is significantly different from today’s
situation and from projected BAU trends (see Figure 2 for the modal split of passenger and
freight). The mode split for the BAU trends is likely to be similar to current situation with a