In fact, the benign view places too much weight on data concerning the volume of global exports and ignores the following facts:
That manufactured exports have been falling in price since mid-2011—suggesting that the rot set in over four years ago.
After recovering in 2010 and the first half of 2011, world trade stopped growing in total value, plateaued, and then began falling in nominal terms after October 2014.
That the recent fall in the total value of global trade is concentrated in a small number of product categories—for sure, commodities are well-represented, but falling trade in certain final goods is far more important than parts and components.
That shipments of motor vehicles, a key sector with supply chains, have grown 10% since October 2014, bucking the trend.