For the ENSO, the lead-lag correlation between the rainfall variability and the Nino3.4
shows less significant correlation than that of the SA in the North Pacific Ocean, and the
significant correlation coefficients are negative (Fig. 5b). The negative correlation between
the PC1 and Nino3.4 indicates the increasing (decreasing) of rainfall over the Indochina
6
related to cool (warm) phase of ENSO, but it is not strong, comparing to the SA in the North
Pacific Ocean, in terms of linear relationship.
POAMA2, the new coupled ocean–atmosphere seasonal
forecast system, is routinely run at the Bureau of
Meteorology to forecast seasonal climate with lead times
of up to nine months. The new POAMA2 system can
now predict the occurrence of El Niño events up to nine
months in advance, though predictability of IOD events
is still limited to lead times of less than three months