It is not unreasonable for an investor to associate
rapid economic growth with strong stock market
returns. Ibbotson and Chen (2003), among others,
have demonstrated that the growth in U.S. corporate
earnings over time has paralleled the growth of
overall U.S. economic productivity. As is well known,
earnings growth is a fundamental building block when
constructing estimates of expected stock returns.
Hypothetically, if country A’s GDP is growing at 9%
annually and country B’s is growing at 3% annually,
isn’t it reasonable to expect the public companies
in economy A to experience higher earnings growth
and subsequently higher returns on equity when
compared to companies in economy B?