ANOTHER day, another sit-in. On November 29th anti-government protesters burst into the large, elegant compound of the Royal Thai army headquarters, in the heart of Bangkok’s government district. In keeping with tactics thus far, the protestors then sat on the manicured lawn to occupy the main forecourt—and blew their ubiquitous whistles. But they also urged the army to come out in favour of the protestors, a definite escalation in their campaign. This raises the spectre of past military interventions. Everybody remembers that it was from here, in 2006, that the army coup was organised that ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his government. And the stated aim of the present protests is once again to “uproot” the Thaksin regime, or more specifically the government headed by Mr Thaksin’s younger sister, Yingluck.
Other places targeted on the fifth day of street protests included the American embassy (where a large crowd handed in a letter denouncing Mr Thaksin and all his works) as well as the headquarters of Ms Thaksin’s governing Pheu Thai party. The protestors have also been preparing for long sit-ins at the two most prominent complexes that they now occupy; the finance ministry, where a large stage and screen have been erected to enable the protest leaders to harangue, or perhaps inspire, their followers, and the enormous complex of government agencies on Chaeng Wattana road, on the outskirts of the city. A large tented camp remains around the Democracy Monument in the heart of the old city, where the protests first started almost a month ago.
But the question now is how long they can keep it up for. For, despite the presence of tens of thousands of protestors on the streets; the dramatic occupation of some government offices; and the many sit-ins now taking place around Bangkok, on balance the week probably belonged to Ms Yingluck, rather than to protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban.
After all, on November 25th, when Mr Suthep began his marches, occupations and sit-ins, he had the momentum of the previous day’s enormous rally behind him, when probably the largest number of Thais in recent history turned out to support his anti-government movement. They were united by righteous anger against the failed amnesty bill that would have let Mr Thaksin off the hook (together with thousands of others) and back in the country. At that point, anything seemed possible—including the physical ejection of the government. But by the end of the week, the government had managed to hang on to all the ministries and offices that really count—the prime minister’s offices, the ministry of defence, the interior ministry—and so has managed to carry on functioning fairly normally. Mr Suthep announced beforehand that November 27th was going to be D-Day, but it came and went. And Ms Yingluck duly won her no-confidence vote in parliament on November 28th, reminding everyone that the Pheu Thai party commands a big parliamentary majority, won in a thumping election victory just over two years ago.
So the invasion of the army headquarters smacked rather of desperation than anything more sinister. Just as the protests have been studiously peaceful, to show that Mr Suthep and his followers have the moral high ground, so all the government law enforcement agencies have been equally peaceful back—thus giving the protestors absolutely no pretext to rally opinion against a “repressive” or “violent” government. Mr Suthep’s protest campaign has been logistically very well organised and his lieutenants continue to dish out enormous amounts of (very nice) free food and water to keep the troops happy. But there must come a point at which, without some major victory, they lose the enthusiasm for the fight and begin to drift away from the battlefield. One of the protestors’ main spokesmen, Akanat Promphan, a well-spoken product of English public school and Oxford University, admits as much. He is the step-son of Mr Suthep, and one of nine former opposition Democrat Party MPs who resigned their seats in order to throw in their lot with the protests. He says he believes fervently in the cause, but “this is very tiring. We will continue to do this as long as we can...and it depends on the mood of the people. They have to get on with their lives, they have jobs to go back to.” He, like other protest leaders, sleeps in a different location each night, mainly for security.
The Democrat Party itself will now offer only limited support, and that may further curtail the protestors’ chances of achieving much. At a vital party meeting on November 28th, after they lost the no-confidence motion, the Democrats decided that no more MPs would quit to join the protestors, despite some calls for them to do so. Democrat leaders will join rallies and support the general movement to “eradicate the Thaksin regime”, as party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva put it. Mr Suthep has been squabbling publicly with Korn Chatikavanij, the Democrat’s deputy leader and former finance minister, who has been critical of Mr Suthep’s tactics.
The upcoming birthday of the revered King Bhumibol, on December 5th, should also lower the political temperature—but Thai street politics are nothing if not unpredictable.