Given what has happened over the past few years, it would be foolish to leave out the South China Sea on a list like this, even though it is hard to predict exactly how things will pan out. The key question will be if and how ASEAN states – both claimants and non-claimants – adjust their responses to account for China’s apparent strategy of incrementally changing the facts on the water while simultaneously binding itself closer economically to Southeast Asia. A decision by the arbitral tribunal at The Hague on the Philippines’ case against China could also influence events, with broader implications for the use of legal instruments by claimants to seek clarity on ongoing disputes.