Here is question for you.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1998 as 9181. As a price index, the Dow does not include reinvested dividends. If the Dow were redefined to reflect the reinvestment of all dividends since May 1896, when it commenced at a value of 40, what would its value have been at the end of 1998? In addition to writing down your best guess, also write down a low guess and a high guess, so that you feel 90 percent confident that the true answer will lie between your low guess and your high guess.