Consequence analysis involves assessment of likely consequences if a failure scenario does materialize. Initially, consequences are quantified in terms of damage
radii (the radius of the area in which the damage would readily occur), damage to property (shattering of window panes, caving of buildings) and toxic effects (chronic/acute toxicity, mortality). The calculated damage radii are later used to assess the effect on human health, and environmental and production losses. Fig. 3 illustrates the procedure for this step. The assessment of consequences involves a wide variety of mathematical models. For example, source models are used to predict the rate of release of hazardous material, the degree of flashing, and the rate of evaporation. The models for explosions and fires are used to predict the characteristics of explosions and fires. The impact intensity models are used to predict the damage zones due to fires, explosion and toxic load. Lastly, toxic gas models are used to predict human response to different levels of
exposures to toxic chemicals. There are many tools available to conduct this analysis such as WHAZAN, MAXCRED, RISKIT, etc.