What's going on behind the scenes?
One reason the Thai conflict can often appear so bewildering is that an important element of the story is routinely left out. One of Thailand's most sacred taboos forbids discussion of the royal succession when the ailing 86-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej passes, and the country's draconian lèse majesté law imposes long jail sentences on those who discuss uncomfortable facts about the monarchy.
The royal succession is absolutely central to the ongoing conflict that has engulfed Thailand since 2005. Although Thailand is nominally a constitutional monarchy in which the palace has a purely symbolic role, in fact the king controls a vast royal fortune conservatively estimated at more than $30 billion and wields enormous influence.
Thailand has long been dominated by an oligarchy of immensely wealthy families connected to the palace through intermarriage and through business deals with the Crown Property Bureau, which manages royal wealth. The Thai establishment fears the rise of a new political and business elite revolving around Thaksin, which would spell the end of the dominance of the old elite.