Consider how the objective of research on firm value and financial state
ment data has been structured, at least implicitly. The traditional main stream view starts with the recognition that, to estimate the value of the firm, one must forecast dividends. Thus, from the perspective of one interested in fundamental analysis, the research would appear to be appropriately structured as an attempt to forecast dividends, presumably with accounting data and other competing information sources. We are stymied, however, by the Modigliani-Miller dividend irrelevancy propo sition: anything short of a dividend forecast over an infinite horizon is meaningless. This problem has been labeled by Penman (1992) as "the dividend conundrum."
Consider how the objective of research on firm value and financial state
ment data has been structured, at least implicitly. The traditional main stream view starts with the recognition that, to estimate the value of the firm, one must forecast dividends. Thus, from the perspective of one interested in fundamental analysis, the research would appear to be appropriately structured as an attempt to forecast dividends, presumably with accounting data and other competing information sources. We are stymied, however, by the Modigliani-Miller dividend irrelevancy propo sition: anything short of a dividend forecast over an infinite horizon is meaningless. This problem has been labeled by Penman (1992) as "the dividend conundrum."
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