economic crises that had taken place in earlier years in various parts of the world, and also of the overall slowdown in world growth and the increase in world oil prices. Secondly, it was during this period of slackening growth, at the beginning of 1999, that Poland launched four public sector reforms which are of great importance to long-term economic growth, but are also costly, namely, an administrative reform linked to the decentralisation of government, a pension reform, a health service reform, and a reform of primary and secondary education. Despite the difficulties this year the GDP increased by 4.5 per cent and the inflation rate was reduced to 7.3 per cent.
Monetary policy
In the first two months of the year, inflation came down, which is attributable to the maintenance of excess supply, primarily of foodstuffs, caused by the loss of Eastern markets in the wake of the Russian crises. Given that inflation was expected to decline further in 1999 the base interest rates were cut on January 21.
The real course of economic developments subsequently differed from that projected by the Monetary Policy Council. In the second half of the year, inflation began to gather speed fairly quickly, chiefly due to higher fuel and food prices. World oil prices rocketed and foodstuff prices rose more rapidly than overall inflation due to the worse harvest in many years. As a consequence interest rates were increased both on September 23 and on November 18.
In 1999 zloty exchange rates continued to be subject to the same crawling band regime, consisting in crawling devaluation against a reference currency basket in conjunction with a trading band for permissible deviation in market exchange rates. However, owing to the launch of the single European currency, the Euro, the compositions of the reference basket was altered. Pursuant to a decision of the Council of Ministers and the Monetary Policy Council as of January 1, 1999, the composition of the basket was set at 55 per cent euro and 45 per cent US dollar.
In 1999 the NBP took preparatory steps with a view to fully floating the Polish currency. Thus, as of March 25, the monthly rate of crawling devaluation was lowered from 0.5 per cent to 0.3 per cent, thereby adjusting it to correspond to the new inflation target for 1999 and to reflect the narrowing differential in price growth between Poland and other countries. In parallel with this, the trading band for permissible fluctuation of NBP market rates relative to central parity was extended from ± 12.5 per cent to ± 15 per cent.