The hog herd also has grown in size in the past year. Inventories of hogs and pigs on September 1 totaled 70.9 million head, up 2% from the same date a year earlier and up 4% from June 1, according to the USDA. Breeding inventories rose 1%, and market-ready inventory was up 3% year-over-year. The average number of pigs per litter rose to a record average of 10.6 in the three months that ended August 31, according to the government.
“We’ve got a whole bunch of hogs, so our demand for feed is going to stay pretty steady,” Broadbent said.
Still, the amount going into ethanol and feed isn’t going to fully offset the record crops as is evidenced by USDA projections for increased inventories for both corn and beans. Broadbent said there’s not much farmers can do at this point but hope that demand stays strong for as long as possible.
“We got a long ways to go through all this corn,” he said. “They’re piling it on the ground. We have a way to go in corn, and wheat’s the same. Demand will improve some, but it’s not going to be enough to overtake the amount we’ve raised. We’re months away from seeing any light at the end of that tunnel.”
Among the biggest variables that could help boost prices is export demand.
So far, sales to global buyers have been extremely strong. By the end of October, the amount of corn sold to overseas importers since the start of the marketing year on September 1 was up more than 80% vs. the same time frame a year earlier.
Soybean sales were up about 30% while sales of wheat, whose marketing year started on June 1, had gained almost 25% year-over-year, according to the USDA.
Jeff Kaprelian, the trade desk manager at brokerage The Hueber Report in Sycamore, Illinois, said it may take a while, but farmers, always the optimists, are confident their grains and soybeans will find a home.
“There will always be a buyer,” Kaprelian said. “We’ll turn out of this, just like always. It’s a huge crop, and carryout is building, but we’ll use it eventually.”