Waste generation
BAU scenario
The GDP of a country strongly correlates to its economic
prosperity, i.e., the standard of living of its population.
A higher standard of living gives rise to higher
consumption of products and goods and hence to an increase
in waste production. As a consequence, there is a
correlation between the GDP and the amount of waste
produced [2]. The approach used in this research
assumes that total MSW production up to now is the
sum of waste landfilled and waste recovered because so
far there is no waste treatment in MRS. Data for the
MSW disposed of and MSW recycled and thus also data
for the total production of waste were available for the
years 1995 to 2007 [26,27]. From these data, the following
correlations between GDP (based on purchasing
power parity per capita) and amount of MSW production
were derived and applied for MSW production until
the year 2030, taking into consideration the development
of the GDP given in the framework scenarios:
MBAU ¼ MLBAU þMRBAU; ð1Þ
MLBAU ¼ 0:0294 GDP0:3607; ð2Þ
MRBAU ¼ 2:6473 105 GDP 0:1908; ð3Þ
where
MBAU is the flux of MSW in the BAU scenario
(kg·person−1 day−1).
MLBAU is the flux of MSW landfilled (kg·person−1
day−1).
GDP is the gross domestic product ($2009 person−1
year−1).
MR-BAU is the flux of MSW recovered (kg·person−1
day−1).
CR and MI scenarios
A literature research allowed the identification of variables,
other than GDP, that have an effect on the quantity
of MSW generated. These variables are urbanization
processes, household size, household income, and years
spent in education, which differ in the three scenarios.
To estimate the influence of these variables on the production
of MSW in the CR and MI scenarios (in comparison
to the BAU scenario), the following approach
was used: