Climate change can be expected to increase the area of plantations needed to supply projected internal demand
for and exports of end products from Brazil. June±July±August (dry season) precipitation reductions indicated by
simulations reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) correspond to rainfall declines in
this critical season of approximately 34% in Amazonia, 39% in Southern Brazil and 61% in the Northeast. As an
example, if rainfall in Brazilian plantation areas (most of which are now in Southern Brazil) were to decline by
50%, the area needed in 2050 would expand by an estimated 38% over the constant climate case, bringing the total
plantation area to 4.5 times the 1991 area. These large areas of additional plantations imply substantial social and
environmental impacts. Further addition of plantation area as a global warming response option would augment
these impacts, indicating the need for caution in evaluating carbon sequestration proposals. # 1999 Elsevier
Science Ltd. All rights reserved.