This paper has explored farmers’ prospective responses to the proposed “greening” of
the CAP. Survey respondents perceive “greening” as a costly constraint to farming.
Not all policy attributes, however, are perceived as equally demanding. The minimum
prescribed share of the smallest crop in the rotation does not affect the likelihood of
“greening” being preferred to “opt-out”, nor does the possibility of counting landscape features or AES land as EFA. By contrast, the share of EFA itself does have a
strong impact on choices. Land “lost” to EFA is valued at the rental value of arable
land, and opportunities for productive uses of the EFA are assigned a positive value.
Not all farmers feel equally affected by “greening”. Among the most heavily
affected are specialised arable farms on highly productive land as well as specialised
dairy farms with high stocking rates. In more general terms, farmers with high opportunity costs of arable land (e.g. high-quality land, high share of permanent pasture,
high stocking rates, biogas plant) will be more inclined to opt out and voluntarily
forgo the “greening” premium than farmers with lower land opportunity costs. A
small group of farmers will fiercely reject “greening”. Fourteen percent of respondents
never chose a “greening” alternative, indicating that they are unwilling to consider
trade-offs. It remains to be seen whether this conclusion is an artefact of the survey’s
hypothetical character.