canberra-australian commodities exporters are facing tough time in the next several years in world markets characterised by an oversupply of most products, soft demand and consequent low prices.
For many exporters, particularly of minerals and energy products, the message wednesday from a conference organised by the australian bureau of agricultural is to cut costs, produce more but get paid less. Australia is a major global supplier of most of the these products, except crude oil, with these industries making major contributions to the domestic economy and export earnings.
Abare, a government resources analyst, forecast the value of commodify exports next fiscal year will fall 4.2 per cent to A$62.40 billion from $65.17 billion this fiscal year ending on june 30, 1999.
Actual exports last fiscal year-fuelled by surging Asian economies-grew 10 percent to $ 66.93 billion.
Last year appeare to be the climax of three decades of growth. The outlook beyond fiscal 1999-2000 remains
subdued, Abare said at its annual five-year outlook conference.
By fiscal 2003-04, commodity exports only are expected to reach $61.37 billion after adjustment for inflation. Energy exports will take the biggest hit over this period.
An index of mine production for energy will rise to 122.6 in fiscal 2003-04 from 107.8 next fiscal year and 100.0 this fiscal year, abare said.
But an index of unit returns for these products falls to 91.9 in fiscal 200-04 in nominal terma compared with 91.7 next fiscal year and 100 this. Australia is the world's largest of coal and a major seller of liquefied natural gas, mostly to japan.
The picture for minorals is a little brighter, while exports of agricultural products are seen flat over the next few year after adjusment for inflation. Undermined commonity prices.
Recovery in asia, from where most of the growth in demend came in the past decade, will take several year, it said.