4.1.2.4.6. Bias in long-horizon forecasts.In addition to quarterly earnings
forecasts, there is a large body of recent research that examines properties of
long-horizon analysts’ forecasts.Long- horizon forecasts are generally forecasts
of growth over two-to-five years.Analy sis of long-term earnings growth
forecasts also reveals that these are generally optimistic (e.g., LaPorta, 1996;
Dechow and Sloan, 1997; Rajan and Servaes, 1997).An emerging body of
research examines analysts’ long-term forecasts in tests of market efficiency (see
below).I defer the discussion of some of the properties of analysts’ long-term
forecasts to the tests of market efficiency section of the paper