In this paper, we have examined questions relating to real and financial links
amongst PBCs and between these countries and the US by analysing the covariance
of returns on national stock markets. This framework has allowed us to examine
these links simultaneously and more accurately and explore whether economic integration plays a role in linking the financial markets. This research has been motivated
by the overwhelming evidence that financial markets can be integrated even in the
presence of substantial foreign exchange restrictions. Our main empirical findings
are as follows.
First, variation in dividends is the main source of stock return variance in all the
countries examined. Correlated news about future dividend growth in each pair of
countries is also the major contribution to the covariance of domestic and foreign
excess stock returns indicating the strength of economic integration in the region. The substantial trade between each of the PBCs and the two large economies of
Japan and the US provides an important transmission channel for country specific
shocks. This channel has been examined and confirmed by Canova and Dellas
(1993), and Canova and DeNicole (1995) for the European countries, and by SchmittGrohe (1996) for the transmission of shocks between the US and Canada. If for
example, foreign capital goods are used in the production of domestic goods, then
“allowing for production interdependencies introduces a previously neglected channel through which idiosyncratic shocks may be propagated across countries”.
Furthermore, it should be noted that the economic integration observed in our paper is
higher than that revealed by the contemporaneous correlation of industrial production
confirming one of the advantages of using the methodology in this paper to measure
economic integration.
Secondly, our results emphasised also the link between this economic integration
with financial integration. We found overwhelming evidence that financial integration
is accompanied by economic integration. This evidence seems to suggest that economic integration provides a channel for financial integration. If economic integration
relates to countries’ comovements of output growth, and economic activity is positively related to stock prices, as has been shown to be the case theoretically and
empirically, then it is not surprising to find stock prices moving together as well. In
fact the relationship between economic activity and stock prices is stronger if foreign
influences are taken into account through consumption and production interdependencies (see Canova and DeNicole, 1995). Thus, our results explain, at least partly,
the high financial market integration found in this study and in other studies even
in the presence of foreign exchange restrictions. In the current study no differences
could be observed in the degree of integration amongst countries with different
degrees of stock market openness during the period of the 1990s. These findings do
not lend support to the use of restrictions to isolate capital markets from world influences.
Thirdly, the results indicate regional economic and financial integration, which
became stronger during the 1990s even prior to the Asian crisis. This provides support to the view that economic integration and trade interdependencies might have
played a major role to the contagion effect of the Asian crisis.
At the same time,
the less pronounced financial integration of the PBCs at the global level before the
crisis explains the mild effect of the crisis on world financial markets.
Finally, the results have revealed that some countries have close links with the
US, and other countries with Japan. For example, Thailand has been greatly financially integrated with the US, while only the financial crisis seems to have linked it
with Japan and even then less so than in the US. On the other hand, Korea and
Taiwan have had close links with Japan. They have been financially integrated with
Japan before and after the crisis and have had no links with the US. Ng (2000)finds
similar links when examining volatility spill over effects from Japan and the US to the PBCs. These close links between Korea and Taiwan with Japan might stem
from the substantial Japanese Direct Foreign Investment (DFI) in those countries
since the mid 1980s. For example, it accounted for 52% of the DFI stock in Korea
and 27% in Taiwan.
This DFI became increasingly export oriented, while at the
same time a lot of parts and equipment were imported from Japan, strengthening
the economic and financial links of these countries.
The study has produced some tentative results with regard to the financial and
real links in the Pacific Basin region. As more data become available a more accurate
picture will emerge. The main finding of the study regarding the importance of economic integration for financial integration needs to be tested for other emerging
stock markets.