The 1.5ºC standard pathway is based on the 1.5ºC pathway published by Climate Action Tracker, and is estimated to have a greater than or equal to 50% probability of staying below 1.5ºC in 2100. The pathway is based on the median of the scenarios reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGIII) that have at least a 50% probability of staying below 1.5ºC. CAT reports a single all-gas median pathway; we disaggregate it into Fossil CO2, LULUCF and non-CO2 pathways using the non-CO2 pathway from RCP 2.6.