External debt is another important marker of overall vulnerability. Figure 3 illustrates
the level of total external debt, including both public and private, relative to GDP. Again, a
picture of deleveraging in emerging markets is clear, as is a dramatic increase in external
debt for the advanced countries. Reinhart and Rogoff (2009, 2011) argue that total external
debt is an important indicator because the boundaries between public and private debt can
become blurred in a crisis. External private debt (particularly but not exclusively that of
banks) is one of the forms of “hidden debt” that emerge out of the woodwork in a crisis. Just
as bank balance sheets before the 2007–09 financial crisis did not reflect the true economic
risk these institutions faced, official measures of public debt are typically a significant
understatement of vulnerability.
External debt is another important marker of overall vulnerability. Figure 3 illustrates
the level of total external debt, including both public and private, relative to GDP. Again, a
picture of deleveraging in emerging markets is clear, as is a dramatic increase in external
debt for the advanced countries. Reinhart and Rogoff (2009, 2011) argue that total external
debt is an important indicator because the boundaries between public and private debt can
become blurred in a crisis. External private debt (particularly but not exclusively that of
banks) is one of the forms of “hidden debt” that emerge out of the woodwork in a crisis. Just
as bank balance sheets before the 2007–09 financial crisis did not reflect the true economic
risk these institutions faced, official measures of public debt are typically a significant
understatement of vulnerability.
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