Vietnam has been in transition from a centrally-planned to a ‘socialist oriented market
economy’ since the introduction of the doi moi economic reforms in 1986. In the early-tomid
1990s, liberalization measures resulted in rapidly expanding exports and high economic
growth, with real GDP growth averaging 9 percent per year. Growth slowed in the late 1990s
but the momentum picked up again, with real GDP growth rising more-or-less steadily and
reaching a high of 8.5 percent in 2007. Since then, growth has slowed down, reaching
5.0 percent in 2012, largely as a result of tighter monetary and fiscal policies and spillovers
from the global economic crisis. At the same time inflation fell sharply through the course of
2012, with CPI inflation falling from 18.1 percent at end-2011 to 6.8 percent at end-2012,
and core inflation falling from 14.3 percent to 9.6 percent over the same period.
Despite the deceleration in inflation, Vietnam has suffered from higher and more volatile
inflation compared to most emerging Asian economies since mid-2007 (Figure 1). This in
turn is a reflection of weaknesses in the macroeconomic policy framework. In particular,
monetary policy in Vietnam has been criticized for lack of transparency and predictability,
and for following multiple—and at times conflicting—objectives (International Monetary
Fund (2010), Moody’s Investor Services (September 2011)). In practice, four key objectives
have been guiding monetary policy in Vietnam in the recent past, namely promoting
economic growth, fighting inflation, stabilizing the exchange rate, and preserving the
stability of the financial system. There is also prevalent use of caps on interest rates and
controls on credit.
Vietnam has been in transition from a centrally-planned to a ‘socialist oriented market
economy’ since the introduction of the doi moi economic reforms in 1986. In the early-tomid
1990s, liberalization measures resulted in rapidly expanding exports and high economic
growth, with real GDP growth averaging 9 percent per year. Growth slowed in the late 1990s
but the momentum picked up again, with real GDP growth rising more-or-less steadily and
reaching a high of 8.5 percent in 2007. Since then, growth has slowed down, reaching
5.0 percent in 2012, largely as a result of tighter monetary and fiscal policies and spillovers
from the global economic crisis. At the same time inflation fell sharply through the course of
2012, with CPI inflation falling from 18.1 percent at end-2011 to 6.8 percent at end-2012,
and core inflation falling from 14.3 percent to 9.6 percent over the same period.
Despite the deceleration in inflation, Vietnam has suffered from higher and more volatile
inflation compared to most emerging Asian economies since mid-2007 (Figure 1). This in
turn is a reflection of weaknesses in the macroeconomic policy framework. In particular,
monetary policy in Vietnam has been criticized for lack of transparency and predictability,
and for following multiple—and at times conflicting—objectives (International Monetary
Fund (2010), Moody’s Investor Services (September 2011)). In practice, four key objectives
have been guiding monetary policy in Vietnam in the recent past, namely promoting
economic growth, fighting inflation, stabilizing the exchange rate, and preserving the
stability of the financial system. There is also prevalent use of caps on interest rates and
controls on credit.
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