Abstract
Objectives: The aim of the research is to investigate the historical relationship between varicella and Streptococcus pyogenes
infections. In the past few decades, varicella has been identified as a risk factor for invasive group A streptococcus infections.
The question is whether this relationship also existed between varicella and scarlet fever in the historical era.
Methods: The analysis begins with a search of historical medical reports on the relationship between varicella and scarlet
fever epidemics in the late 19th and early 20th century, as well as in more recent empirical studies. Correlations and crosscorrelations
between varicella and scarlet fever are analyzed using weekly public health case reports from 1924 to 1932
for Boston, Chicago, New York City, and Philadelphia. Regression models are used to estimate the relationship between
varicella and scarlet fever after controlling for seasonal forcing.
Results: Historical records give limited support for a causal relationship between varicella and scarlet fever but indicate that
these diseases often occurred close in time to each other. Likewise, statistical analysis shows that varicella and scarlet fever
epidemics are closely aligned with each other, and varicella has a strong relationship with scarlet fever. The relationship is
stronger than reported in any previous research on the two diseases.
Conclusion: The close correspondence of the two diseases likely depends on multiple factors, including seasonal forcing,
a causal relationship, and co-infections. The results raise questions about whether this close relationship might have had a
synergistic effect or a role in the evolution of S. pyogenes from the virulent, high incidence epidemics of the 19th century to
the relatively benign scarlet fever of the 1950s.
AbstractObjectives: The aim of the research is to investigate the historical relationship between varicella and Streptococcus pyogenesinfections. In the past few decades, varicella has been identified as a risk factor for invasive group A streptococcus infections.The question is whether this relationship also existed between varicella and scarlet fever in the historical era.Methods: The analysis begins with a search of historical medical reports on the relationship between varicella and scarletfever epidemics in the late 19th and early 20th century, as well as in more recent empirical studies. Correlations and crosscorrelationsbetween varicella and scarlet fever are analyzed using weekly public health case reports from 1924 to 1932for Boston, Chicago, New York City, and Philadelphia. Regression models are used to estimate the relationship betweenvaricella and scarlet fever after controlling for seasonal forcing.Results: Historical records give limited support for a causal relationship between varicella and scarlet fever but indicate thatthese diseases often occurred close in time to each other. Likewise, statistical analysis shows that varicella and scarlet feverepidemics are closely aligned with each other, and varicella has a strong relationship with scarlet fever. The relationship isstronger than reported in any previous research on the two diseases.Conclusion: The close correspondence of the two diseases likely depends on multiple factors, including seasonal forcing,ความสัมพันธ์เชิงสาเหตุ และการติดเชื้อร่วมด้วย ผลการเพิ่มคำถามว่าความสัมพันธ์นี้อาจจะมีการผลเสริมฤทธิ์กันหรือบทบาทในการวิวัฒนาการของ S. pyogenes จากโรคระบาดอุบัติการณ์ virulent สูงของศตวรรษที่ 19 การไข้ดำแดงค่อนข้างอ่อนโยนของปี 1950
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