We examined primary cesarean and VBAC data from 1995
through 2005 [6,16] to determine the rate at which primary
cesareans are increasing. As it is not certain that the rise in
primary cesareans will continue as in recent years, we varied
the model inputs to assess four different future scenarios: one
in which the primary cesarean rate continues to increase
steadily (to 39.5% by 2020); one in which primary cesareans
increase, but at one-half the current rate (to 30.5% by 2020);
one in which the primary cesarean rate does not change
(21.5% in 2020)