Abstract: When making judgments, people rely on heuristics, or general rules of thumb.
In other words, they use mental "shortcuts", which may lead to rational solutions and good estimates. In certain situations, however, these simplification Techniques can cause inconsistencies and promote cognitive biases.
One root cause of almost all project failures is human error or misjudgment. Although the ability to make right decisions is considered a main indicator of project management professionalism, many project managers are unwilling to try to improve the quality of their decisions. Because project managers rarely have enough time and resources to perform a proper analysis, and a decision analysis expert is not always available, there is always the temptation to make intuitive decisions.