4. Discussion
Cellulosic biofuel was less influenced by negative factors than algae
in the environmental scanning methodology. Climate change and environmental
degradation have strong negative impacts on both analyses.
This suggests that the positive trends in other components cannot overcome
the negative effects of peak oil, climate change and other factors
that damage the environment. Energy availability has substantial negative
scores over time. Perhaps switching to either type of biofuelwill not
be enough to fuel society as it moves towards renewable energy
sources. Energy availability will be an important factor in future energy
policy decisions. Positive biofuel and liquid transportation fuel
demands, industrialization and continued population growth support
the greater need for energy. In contrast, national energy policy appears
to be positive component in addition to the biofuel types. This illustrates
the importance of energy policy in biofuel production. Economic and
science policy components increased quickly over time, indicating potential positive impacts very quickly if efficiently and effectively
employed. Climate change became less negative over time, indicating
that although climate change will have drastic effects, biofuels and
other mitigation techniques can limit damage to the environment. The
high number of components that have positive impacts over time
suggests that biofuels would still provide a good alternative to petroleum.
Without the moderating effect of biofuels, the model's negative
impacts like climate change could be much higher.
The differences between the cellulosic and algal-derived biofuels also
suggest potential future biofuel trends. International technological development
hasmuch less of a positive impact score than that of national technological
development. Focusing on national efforts, supported by solid policy
ensures engagementwith local sources and higher energy security. In addition,
while national technological development will likely meet with challenges
during the next five years, it still increases dramatically