The outlook for transport fuels has been summarized in [1]. It is
expected that energy for transport will continue to be supplied
essentially by liquid fuels made from crude oil in the next several
decades as it is today. There will be sufficient oil to meet the
increasing demand for transport. However, this growth will be
heavily skewed toward commercial transport and hence toward
middle distillates (diesel and jet fuel) rather than gasoline.
Meanwhile the push for higher efficiency in spark ignition engines
will require the octane quality of the gasoline pool to be raised.
Such trends suggest that there will be a relative abundance of
low octane components in the gasoline boiling range even after
investments are made in refineries to meet the changing fuel
demand structure.