Abstract
Background:Evaluation of the adverse health effects of PM10pollution (particulate matter less than 10 microns in
diameter) is very important for protecting human health and establishing pollution control policy. Population
exposure estimation is the first step in formulating exposure data for quantitative assessment of harmful PM10
pollution.
Methods:In this paper, we estimate PM10concentration using a spatial interpolation method on a grid with a
spatial resolution 0.01° × 0.01°. PM10concentration data from monitoring stations are spatially interpolated, based
on accurate population data in 2000 using a geographic information system. Then, an interpolated population layer
is overlaid with an interpolated PM10concentration layer, and population exposure levels are calculated. Combined
with the exposure-response function between PM10and health endpoints, economic costs of the adverse health
effects of PM10
pollution are analyzed.
Results:The results indicate that the population in Lanzhou urban areas is distributed in a narrow and long belt,
and there are relatively large population spatial gradients in the XiGu, ChengGuan and QiLiHe districts. We select
threshold concentration C0at: 0μgm
-3
(no harmful health effects), 20 μgm
-3
(recommended by the World Health
Organization), and 50μgm
-3
(national first class standard in China) to calculate excess morbidity cases. For these
three scenarios, proportions of the economic cost of PM
10pollution-related adverse health effects relative to GDP
are 0.206%, 0.194% and 0.175%, respectively. The impact of meteorological factors on PM10concentrations in 2000
is also analyzed. Sandstorm weather in spring, inversion layers in winter, and precipitation in summer are important
factors associated with change in PM
10
concentration.
Conclusions:The population distribution by exposure level shows that the majority of people live in polluted
areas. With the improvement of evaluation criteria, economic damage of respiratory disease caused by PM10is
much bigger. The health effects of Lanzhou urban residents should not be ignored. The government needs to find
a better way to balance the health of residents and economy development. And balance the pros and cons before
making a final policy.
Keywords:PM10
, Population exposure assessment, Economic assessment, Generalized additive model (GAM),
GIS method
AbstractBackground:Evaluation of the adverse health effects of PM10pollution (particulate matter less than 10 microns indiameter) is very important for protecting human health and establishing pollution control policy. Populationexposure estimation is the first step in formulating exposure data for quantitative assessment of harmful PM10pollution.Methods:In this paper, we estimate PM10concentration using a spatial interpolation method on a grid with aspatial resolution 0.01° × 0.01°. PM10concentration data from monitoring stations are spatially interpolated, basedon accurate population data in 2000 using a geographic information system. Then, an interpolated population layeris overlaid with an interpolated PM10concentration layer, and population exposure levels are calculated. Combinedwith the exposure-response function between PM10and health endpoints, economic costs of the adverse healtheffects of PM10pollution are analyzed.Results:The results indicate that the population in Lanzhou urban areas is distributed in a narrow and long belt,and there are relatively large population spatial gradients in the XiGu, ChengGuan and QiLiHe districts. We selectthreshold concentration C0at: 0μgm-3(no harmful health effects), 20 μgm-3(recommended by the World HealthOrganization), and 50μgm-3(national first class standard in China) to calculate excess morbidity cases. For thesethree scenarios, proportions of the economic cost of PM10pollution-related adverse health effects relative to GDPare 0.206%, 0.194% and 0.175%, respectively. The impact of meteorological factors on PM10concentrations in 2000is also analyzed. Sandstorm weather in spring, inversion layers in winter, and precipitation in summer are importantfactors associated with change in PM10concentration.Conclusions:The population distribution by exposure level shows that the majority of people live in pollutedareas. With the improvement of evaluation criteria, economic damage of respiratory disease caused by PM10ismuch bigger. The health effects of Lanzhou urban residents should not be ignored. The government needs to finda better way to balance the health of residents and economy development. And balance the pros and cons beforemaking a final policy.Keywords:PM10, Population exposure assessment, Economic assessment, Generalized additive model (GAM),GIS method
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