For heat pumps, the NREAP-target for 2020 (11 PJ) is in the lower part of both the target range according to the stakeholder process (9–17 PJ) and within the literature scenarios (7–33 PJ). Again, the application of heat pumps so far strongly focuses on the sector of space heating and hot water preparation, while the industry sector only plays a minor role ( Biermayr et al., 2010). Considering only the space heating and hot water sector is taken into account (7–13 PJ), the NREAP target is in the upper-middle of the target range ( Table 6). The technology split according to the NREAP-target shows a share of 40% aerothermal heat pumps in the year 2020; this is in line with current developments (see Section 2.7). However, it is not in line with the policy framework requiring minimum mean seasonal COP of 3–4 (see Section 3.1.1), which aerothermal heat pumps hardly achieve.