Next, we consider the trade balance. As discussed above,
regions with reduced irrigation availability tend to net export less
volumes, but at higher prices. The aggregate effect on trade is
usually dominated by changes in quantities. Thus, the export value
falls in regions that are losing water for irrigation. The import value
rises due to both larger quantities and higher prices. Higher import
and lower export values together explain the worsened agricultural
trade balance in the negatively shocked regions. Model
projections suggest the largest agricultural and food trade deficit
owing to irrigation stress for South Asia excluding India ($ 1.35
billion), with a relatively large gap also for China ($ 1.08 billion),
India ($ 0.44 billion) and the MENA region ($ 0.6 billion).