12Results are similar if we use a three-year earnings aggregation (t, t–1, t–2). We present the two-year
aggregation to minimize data requirements. Shumway’s model uses accounting information, market returns, and
return volatility to estimate the probability of bankruptcy in any given period. Results are stronger if we use the
Altman Z-score instead of the Shumway score. We present the Shumway score as this variable has more available
observations.