Fig. 1. An integrated science of climate-change biodiversity assessment will draw from multiple sources and approaches. Each provides useful but incomplete information on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Integration of these approaches will provide a more robust basis for vulnerability assessment and allocation of resources for conservation and adaptation. Direct observations, including long-term monitoring, are applicable at a broad range of scales and can be used to assess all aspects of vulnerability. Paleoecological records extend the observational foundation to encompass a broader range of rates, magnitudes, and kinds of climate change. They can reveal adaptive capacity and risks.
Climate-envelope (or niche) models are statistical models based on correlations between geographic patterns of species distributions and climate, and are best suited for assessment of exposure. Mechanistic models such as population models and ecophysiological models are diverse, require taxon-specific parameters, and are often coupled. They are particularly effective in assessing sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Experimental manipulations provide information on sensitivity
and adaptive capacity, and are valuable in parameterizing mechanistic models.