2. Inflation expectations data
Data on household-level matched qualitative and quantitative
inflation expectations are obtained from the Surveys
of Consumers. These data are also used to construct
the well-known Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS). The
survey has been being administered on a monthly basis by
the Survey Research Center of the University of Michigan
since 1978. Some earlier studies of household inflation expectations
used this survey dataset starting in 1966, when
it was still administered quarterly, e.g., Fishe and Lahiri
(1981). The sample size decreased from around 1000 to
700 households per month during the early 80s, further
declined to around 500 households by about 1988, and remained
steady thereafter. The survey features a rotating
panel sample design, where survey respondents are reinterviewed
six months after they were randomly drawn into
the sample. Due to lower response rates for the second interviews,
in a typical month, about 60% of the respondents
are new and 40% were interviewed six months previously.
The survey covers many aspects of household expectations
and perceptions, as well as household sociodemographic
characteristics. Among other things, the
survey asks about expectations and/or perceptions on
household financial situations, overall business conditions