Electricity consumption in educational facilities has increased by an annual average of 9.84% since 2006.
However, it is not considered as a factor in determining the AECB (annual energy cost budget) in South
Korea. Therefore, this study aims to develop an estimation model for determining the AECB in educational
facilities using the SARIMA (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average) model and the
ANN (artificial neural network). This study collected electricity consumption data for 7 years (2005
e2011) from 787 educational facilities. The result of this study showed that the prediction accuracy of the
proposed hybrid model (which was developed by combining SARIMA and ANN) was improved,
compared to the conventional SARIMA model. The MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) of the proposed
method and conventional method for determining the AECB in educational facilities was determined
at 0.11e0.24% and 1.23e1.84%, respectively. Namely, it was determined that the proposed method
was superior to the conventional method. The proposed model could enable executives and managers in
charge of budget planning to accurately determine the AECB in educational facilities. It could be also
applied to other types of resources (e.g., water consumption or gas consumption) used in educational
facilities.
ปริมาณการใช้ไฟฟ้าในสิ่งอำนวยความสะดวกด้านการศึกษาได้เพิ่มขึ้นโดยเฉลี่ยปีละ Electricity consumption in educational facilities has increased by an annual average of 9.84% since 2006.
แต่ก็ไม่ถือว่าเป็นปัจจัยในการกำหนด However, it is not considered as a factor in determining the AECB (annual energy cost budget) in South
ในเซาท์เกาหลี ดังนั้นการศึกษาครั้งนี้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อพัฒนารูปแบบการประมาณค่าสำหรับการกำหนด Korea. Therefore, this study aims to develop an estimation model for determining the AECB in educational
ในการศึกษาสิ่งอำนวยความสะดวกโดยใช้SARIMA ( facilities using the SARIMA (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average) model and the
ANN ( การศึกษาครั้งนี้เก็บรวบรวมข้อมูลการใช้ไฟฟ้าเป็นเวลา ANN (artificial neural network). This study collected electricity consumption data for 7 years (2005
e2011) e2011) from 787 educational facilities. The result of this study showed that the prediction accuracy of the
proposed hybrid model (which was developed by combining SARIMA and ANN) was improved,
compared to the conventional SARIMA model. The MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) of the proposed
method and conventional method for determining the AECB in educational facilities was determined
at 0.11e0.24% and 1.23e1.84%, respectively. Namely, it was determined that the proposed method
was superior to the conventional method. The proposed model could enable executives and managers in
charge of budget planning to accurately determine the AECB in educational facilities. It could be also
applied to other types of resources (e.g., water consumption or gas consumption) used in educational
facilities.
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